Market Predictions.

Contents

  1. Have We Reached the Peak of the Growth Curve .
  2. Thanks for noticing
  3. Homelessness and the Link to The Reserve Bank
  4. Rental Comment
  5. The Great Meth Myth Revisited
  6. Donkey Business
  7. Out of the Mouths of Babes

 

I have just returned from a lovely week in the Kaweka ranges with two fine men. I enjoyed a wonderful time with two great personalities. Both with new-borns so their priority was catching up on a bit of sleep. Lots of laughs, a few gut busting walks, serious games of “Risk” late into the night, loads of trout caught in the most pristine of rocky rivers, with most released. No deer this trip but they were there laughing at us,  and the big bonus is that both men were my sons!

price-rising-pic-by-julz

Back in November 2015 we predicted that the correction cycle was about to kick into life in Whangarei and owners should hold properties. I started that newsletter with the words “the winds of change are in the air”. What followed was two years of growth with the average Whangarei property rising by over $120,000 .  We are beginning to see early signs of the same “winds of change”.  It’s more of a gut feeling, supported by minimal evidence, but it does seem the Oomph! has gone out of the market . That’s not to say the market has stopped rising, far from it. The market has a lot of growth in it yet, but it is starting to look like we may be at the peak of that growth curve. While the growth will continue we are seeing the early signs that that growth rate will start to slow down.

In a recent conversation with a senior bank manager, he revealed that the 40% deposit requirement was having an effect with a slowdown in lending. He also mentioned that it was affecting all the wrong people, the first home buyers and the Mum and Dad buyers picking up a retirement income. The seasoned investors had plenty of equity and therefore less trouble borrowing.

We are seeing lots of sales happening, but the panic buying seems to have gone out of the market and we are not seeing the same number of buyers at open homes. We are still getting multiple offers on properties but maybe two or three contracts as opposed to the 6-7 we were getting in the peak.

The one thing about Real Estate is that the market moves slowly and we as Agents tend to see trends long before they become evident. We are probably at least 6-12 months away from any significant slowdown, but we think it is coming.

Auckland has been the key driver of our market and we continue to see a wave of Aulander’s taking the opportunity to cash up and buy in the provinces. This is not showing any signs of slowing yet, but will if the Auckland market continues it’s slow down and properties become harder to sell. Again we are some way off this happening as the Auckland market is still growing at around 15% year on year. Should this growth slow to around 4-6% we will see the effect in the provinces. Basically as long as there is someone to buy the Auckland properties the Whangarei market will bubble along, but should these buyers dry up then the slowdown will be here.

Its not that the market is going to hit a brick wall, far from it, it has considerable momentum and our predictions that the average price in Whangarei will hit $500,000 are still odds on, ( October sales reached $451,874), but what we are seeing is the first signs that the market may be changing. We still predict growth through this year and into next year but once it peaks in the next month or two it will gradually start to slow. Growth is more likely to be at saner levels.

We also have to be aware that the Real Estate market generally has buying seasons. The February through to June months are the busiest with October being the next. If the boom market slows down then the effect of the selling season has more influence and we see bursts of activity in these months with quieter times between

Tip.  If you are holding a property to get the capital gain, its time to start thinking about selling it. You have plenty of time, but don’t hold off too long as you want to be selling into the rising market while it still has plenty buyers. If you try to sell when the market has slowed you join a rush of other sellers doing the same and you may have difficulty.

Thanks for Noticing .

thank-you-jpg

We have had a number of people on the mailing list ask when the next newsletter was coming out. . It’s good to know it’s been missed. The last issue was in August so it has been a while. We try to put these out at least every second month, but don’t want to just be writing them for the sake of writing them. We want to make sure there is something to say and the last two months have been more of the same. A rapidly rising market, with year on year growth hitting 23.9%, in line with our prediction of 24%.  So basically while it’s been an exciting time for property owners there has been nothing new to write about. At a seminar we attended recently, we were told that if 3-7 % of the people on your mailing list read your newsletter it is a success. We currently have over 70% opening this newsletter. We really appreciate that you read it and thanks you for your support.

The Recipe for Homelessness Courtesy Of The Reserve Bank!

homeless

We have long advocated for an untouched Property market where the regulators stay out of the residential market and let it find its own level. Every time the powers that be intervene they create a crisis in another area. A past example is the building industry where the boom and bust cycles created by rising and lowering interest rates have resulted in our country now having to import builders to meet current demand and a serious lack of new building. Along with this trend we now have the 40% deposit ratio and its unintended and dramatic long term effects.

The first is increased homelessness. Imagine the supply of rental houses is like a pyramid. The best tenants get the ones on top of the pyramid, as the tenant’s suitability declines, they move further down the pyramid. The top of the pyramid is made up of quality homes in good areas and the base of the pyramid is made up of poor quality homes in undesirable areas. If the supply of good quality rentals reduces, (the intended effect of the 40% loan ratio to stop investors and speculators) then the tenants for those properties take the next best one they can find further down the pyramid. They are assured of getting it because they are quality tenants and they will squeeze out the ones below them. This process continues right to the bottom of the pyramid, where the people who are “challenged “ as tenants find they have no choices. There is nothing available for them and they drop out of the pyramid like so many water drops falling from a squeezed sponge. When the 30% deposit ratio was introduced and sales slowed down we saw an increase in the number of homeless in Auckland. That will be nothing to what is about to happen with the 40% ratio, if the Reserve Bank is successful and drives the Mum and Dad property investors out of the market. The rental supply will not keep up with demand and the vulnerable and least able to advocate for themselves will have no options but the streets or temporary shelters provided by charities.  A new wave of homelessness will be created because of the unintended consequence of the deliberate and artificial interference in the value of a house.

Basically the country needs the financial input of these investors, be that Mum and Dads or long term professional landlords. We need these people to be pumping their capital into housing. If they don’t, and we are seeing a slowdown now, then we as a country have a consequence which is more homelessness.

However there is a solution and that’s the second consequence! The government of the day can step in and build thousands of rental homes for these people to fill the gap left by the private landlords! But this isn’t easy. Firstly where are the builders going to come from and secondly where is the land?. When I managed Housing NZ for the Whangarei District in 1992 the Crown owned 72,000 state houses. By the time I left in 1994 they owned 68,000 homes.  I haven’t got the latest figures but information from the various census figure shows 69,000 is the current figure.

Based on population growth we are short around 15,000 state houses now. At a conservative cost of $400,000 per house and land package, we the taxpayer would have to find 6 billion dollars in extra taxes to fund these houses. And that is without the existing private landlords deciding they want to pull out of providing rental housing. Currently the private landlords provide around 355,500 (Census 2103) rental houses while the Government provides around 69,000. If just 10% of those landlords decide they don’t want to be owners, then the state will need to purchase or build another 35,000 homes to fill the gap. That’s another 14 Billion dollars of extra taxes needed.  We can’t have it both ways.  Either support the landlords who are doing their bit for our country by investing their capital in housing, or be prepared to take up the slack and pay way more in taxes to provide more housing. Alternately  expect a huge surge in homelessness.  I’m pretty sure we all know which way we are heading.

Since drafting this article the Government has released its $300 million , 1,400 extra temporary bed places for the homeless package. We now know which option has been chosen. In a war its called “collateral damage”

If you are looking for the early warning signs that this is happening right here in Whangarei then read the next article.

Rental Comment.

for-rent

The lovely Renee Wilkinson , Business development Manager for Harcourt’s Just Rentals , has been talking about an increasing trend she is  seeing. The number of  properties that they are advertising for rent has dropped by over 50 % year on year. Down from Mid 150’s last year to 50-70 this year .  This means there are less rentals available and they being filled faster . Because of the lack of choice more tenants are staying put rather than moving around increasing the shortage. The rental market is already starting to hit a crisis level with good, well qualified people,  unable to find a rental property.

She has also stated that they have 6-7 well qualified tenant applicants for every good rental property. This demonstrates a strong growing demand for rental properties and the flowing  down the pyramid effect discussed in the earlier article .  The good news for landlords is rent  rises are happening  as demand is clearly outstripping supply ..

meths-pic-1

                                          The Great Meth’s Myth.

We are delighted to see some common sense finally coming through on “Meth’s/P” test levels  . The Health Department have heeded the concerns expressed by Dr Nick Kim  a senior  lecturer in Chemistry from Massey University,  that they were applying the wrong measurement to houses where “Meth’s” had been smoked rather than manufactured, and have subsequently relaxed the standards .

The 0.5 level remains for “P’ labs where it has been cooked, which is what the test was actually designed for, but drops to 3 times the level at 1.5 for houses with carpet and 4 times the level at 2.0 for houses that don’t. This is a common sense approach although still ridiculously conservative as Dr Kim sated that the safe level was more like 20 and that he would be happy for his kids to live in anything up to 12x.

The amounts are still way too low for any Health risks but at least this should solve some of the ridiculous situations, where people have had to clean houses or even replace interior walls , for miniscule amounts of meths,  based on a false understanding of dangers.

One important comment Dr Kim made that all landlords should remember, is that rather than rushing in with expensive cleaning options, try opening windows for a while . The “P” contamination from smoking does break down over time just as cigarette smoke does. His comparison with cigarette smoke is a good analogy to keep in mind.

A special thanks to Dr Kim for his enlightening work in this field and the restoration of some common sense in the great bureaucracy. This man will save landlord millions of dollars

For a look at the earlier article click here

donkey

SOME INTERESTING STUFF ABOUT DONKEYS.

One of the best aspects of Real Estate is the people you meet. From all walks of life, with the experience and diversity of ages. As a result you hear the most interesting bits of information. A few days ago it was Donkeys . The information came from four different people all in the same day.

The first gem was Donkeys live a long time. Your pet braying machine can live for up to 50 years! No wonder they get so smart. This came up as I am about to list a property where the pet Donkey has stayed as part of the chattels. The Donkey has been there for as long back as anyone knows yet the property has changed hands three times.

The second snippet if that Donkey’s keep bulls in line. If you have bulls run a donkey with them. The Donkey will be peacemaker and will stop the bulls fighting. One Donkey will keep about 30 bulls from fighting. They do this by kicking the bulls and biting the bulls on their rumps when they get aggressive, and if that doesn’t stop them they will bite them on the testicles!! No wonder the bulls fall into line.  There’s nothing like a nut cracker from a large toothed Donkey to take the fight out of you. !  Perhaps they should be introduced into our prisons.

And then, American sheep farmers have been known to run Donkeys with their Sheep in the wild country. Donkeys have an aversion to any canine and if they are in their patch, will chase them relentlessly, and as we all know “they kick like a mule”. The Donkeys keep Coyotes and dogs away from the flock. Apparently they can also bite down on a Coyote’s neck or back and throw them through the air.  What a useful if slightly noisy animal.

From the mouths of Babes

little-blond-girl

Just an aside , My sweet, angelic, blonde, butter wouldn’t melt in her mouth, three year old  granddaughter fell hard on her rump, at her Great Grandmothers 60th Wedding anniversary, after trying to scale a table.  She has two older brothers who teach her all sorts of strange language, as evident when she loudly proclaimed to the throng of oldies who had gathered around her concerned about her wellbeing.  “ Oops ! think I might of cracked  my ball sack!”

                      

One thought on “Market Predictions.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s